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COVID-19 Ba a Karewa ba tukuna: Abin da Muka Sani game da Sabbin Sabbin Tawaga a China 

Abin mamaki ne dalilin da ya sa kasar Sin ta zabi daukar matakin sifiri-COVID tare da kawar da tsauraran matakan NPI, a cikin hunturu, kafin sabuwar shekara ta Sinawa, lokacin da BF.7 mai saurin yaduwa ya riga ya fara yawo. 

"WHO ta damu matuka game da yanayin da ake ciki a kasar Sin"In ji Darakta-Janar na WHO a ranar Laraba (20th Disamba 2022) akan yawan karuwa a cikin lamuran COVID a cikin Sin.   

Yayin da sauran kasashen duniya ke fama da annobar cutar, kasar Sin tana da karancin kamuwa da cuta sakamakon ci gaba da aiwatar da manufar COVID-Covid ta hanyar aiwatar da matakan da ba na magunguna ba (NPIs). Matsalolin da ba na magunguna ba ko matakan rage wa al'umma kayan aikin kiwon lafiyar jama'a kamar nisantar jiki, ware kai, iyakance girman taro, rufe makarantu, aiki daga gida, da sauransu waɗanda ke taimakawa wajen hanawa da sarrafa yaduwar cututtuka a cikin al'umma. Ƙuntataccen NPIs sun taƙaita hulɗar mutane-da-mutane wanda ya iyakance adadin watsa kwayar cutar kuma ya sami nasarar kiyaye adadin masu mutuwa zuwa mafi ƙasƙanci. A lokaci guda, hulɗar kusa-sifili kuma ba ta da amfani ga haɓakar halitta garken garkuwa.  

Tare da tsauraran matakan NPI, kasar Sin ta kuma gudanar da babban rigakafin COVID-19 (ta amfani da Sinovac ko CoronaVac wanda shine allurar rigakafin cutar da ba a kunna ba). Adadin mutanen da ke da shekaru 92+ (waɗanda suka fi rauni), duk da haka, bai gamsar da su ba a 80% (an karɓi aƙalla kashi ɗaya), 77% (an karɓi kashi na 66), da 2% (an karɓi kashi na ƙarfafawa kuma. ).  

Idan babu garkuwar garken garken an bar mutane ne kawai akan allurar rigakafin da ke haifar da rigakafi mai aiki wanda maiyuwa ba su da tasiri a kan kowane sabon bambance-bambancen da/ko, tare da lokaci, rigakafin da aka haifar na rigakafin na iya raguwa. Wannan tare da rashin gamsuwa game da ɗaukar rigakafin rigakafin cutar yana nufin ƙarancin matakan rigakafi a tsakanin mutanen China.  

A wannan yanayin, kasar Sin ta dage tsauraran manufofin COVID-Covid a cikin Disamba 2022. Shahararrun zanga-zangar na iya kasancewa wani bangare ne ke da alhakin sauya sheka daga "tsari mai karfi" (DZT) zuwa "babu wani abin kirkira" (TNI). 

Sauƙaƙe ƙuntatawa, duk da haka, ya haifar da ƙaruwa mai yawa a lokuta. Rahotannin da ba a tantance ba da ke fitowa daga China sun nuna adadin mace-mace da yawa da asibitoci da cibiyoyin kula da jana'iza fiye da yadda aka bayar da rahoton a hukumance. Adadin wadanda suka kamu da cutar a duniya baki daya ya zarce rabin miliyan a kowace rana a cikin mako mai zuwa 19 ga Disamba, 2022. Wasu hasashe da ke nuni da cewa halin da ake ciki yanzu na iya zama na farko a cikin raƙuman hunturu guda uku, wanda ke da alaƙa da tafiye-tafiye da yawa kafin da bayan bikin sabuwar shekara ta Sinawa a ranar 22 ga wata. Janairu 2023 (tsari mai tunawa da farkon lokacin COVID-19 pandemic a cikin 2019-2020).  

Da alama, BF.7, samfurin omicron da ke da alaƙa da hauhawar cututtukan COVID-19 a China yana iya yaɗuwa sosai. Ingantacciyar lambar haifuwa ga wannan yanki a cikin Beijing a tsakanin Nuwamba - Disamba 2022 an kiyasta ya kai 3.421.  

Yanayin COVID-19 ga China nan gaba da alama yana da kalubale. Dangane da wani samfuri dangane da bayanan cutar sankara na kwanan nan na Macau, Hong Kong, da Singapore, ana hasashen mutuwar mutane miliyan 1.49 a China cikin kwanaki 180. Idan an karɓi annashuwa marasa magani (NPIs) bayan barkewar farko, adadin waɗanda suka mutu zai iya raguwa da 36.91% a cikin kwanaki 360 Wannan ana kiran wannan tsarin “flatten-the-curve” (FTC). Cikakken allurar rigakafi da amfani da magungunan rigakafin COVID na iya rage adadin mace-mace tsakanin tsofaffi (shekaru 60 da) rukunin shekaru zuwa miliyan 0.40 (daga miliyan 0.81 da aka kiyasta)2.  

Wani binciken ƙirar ƙirar yana aiwatar da yanayin ƙarancin yanayi - tsakanin 268,300 zuwa 398,700 mutuwar, da adadin mafi girman lokuta tsakanin 3.2 zuwa 6.4 a cikin 10,000 yawan jama'a kafin igiyar ruwa ta koma bayan Fabrairu 2023. Yin tilastawa NPIs masu rauni na iya rage adadin mutuwar da kashi 8% yayin da tsananin NPI na iya rage mace-mace da kashi 30% (idan aka kwatanta da gabaɗaya babu wani shiri). Matsakaicin adadin ƙara mai sauri da tsauraran NPIs zai taimaka inganta yanayin3

Abin mamaki ne dalilin da ya sa kasar Sin ta zabi daukar matakin sifili-COVID tare da kawar da tsattsauran ra'ayi na NPI, a cikin hunturu, kafin sabuwar shekara ta Sinawa, lokacin da BF.7 mai saurin yaduwa ya riga ya fara yawo.  

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References:  

  1. Leung K., et al., 2022. Ƙididdiga ƙarfin watsawar Omicron a Beijing, Nuwamba zuwa Disamba 2022. Preprint medRxiv. An buga Disamba 16, 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.12.15.22283522 
  1. Sun J., Li Y., Shao N., da Liu M., 2022. Shin zai yiwu a karkata-laka bayan barkewar Covid-19 na farko? Binciken ƙirar ƙira da bayanai don cutar Omicron a China. Preprint medRxiv . An buga Disamba 22, 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.12.21.22283786  
  1. Song F., da Bachmann MO, 2022. Samfuran barkewar annobar SARS-CoV-2 Omicron bambance-bambancen bayan sauƙaƙe dabarun Zero-COVID a babban yankin China. Preprint medRxiv. An buga Disamba 22, 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.12.22.22283841

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Umesh Prasad
Umesh Prasad
Jaridar Kimiyya | Editan kafa, mujallar Scientific Turai

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